While AI investment is surging, current energy forecasts for data centers through 2030 are holding steady because physical and financial constraints are slowing down the actual rollout, according to the authors of the newly released report. However, the researchers warn that a significant upward revision may be necessary after 2030 as these bottlenecks are resolved and more energy-intensive AI uses become popular.
The report states: “The balance of evidence suggests that the scenario framework we developed in our 2025 Energy and AI report continues to provide a sound frame of reference out to 2030.” It adds that “investments in relieving bottlenecks across energy equipment and chip manufacturing, and rapid uptake of energy-intensive use cases of AI, raise the prospect that there could be an even higher upside case after 2030.”
Even though the tech world is spending massive amounts of money on AI, the energy needed to power it isn’t growing quite as fast as some might expect right now. This is because the industry is running into real-world problems, like a lack of available power grid connections and a shortage of specialized computer chips, which are acting like a speed brake on construction. Once these logjams are cleared in the coming years, and as AI becomes capable of more complex tasks like generating video, the amount of electricity required is expected to climb much higher than earlier predictions.
The report “Key Questions on Energy and AI” was published in April 2026 by the International Energy Agency in Paris, France. Part of the World Energy Outlook Special Report series, the analysis was prepared by a team led by Thomas Spencer and Siddharth Singh under the direction of Laura Cozzi. The publication provides a comprehensive assessment of the rapidly evolving intersection between artificial intelligence, data center power demands, and global energy markets.
