An AI-fueled productivity surge is expected to increase global energy use, but the growth in power demand will likely be significantly smaller than the jump in economic output. According to the authors of the newly released report, total global energy demand could rise by approximately 0.9% to 2.6% by 2035 if artificial intelligence triggers a widespread boost in worker efficiency and national wealth.
“Stronger economic growth from AI does not translate one-to-one into higher energy demand. It is concentrated in knowledge-intensive services and high-income countries, where the elasticity between energy demand and economic activity is lower.” The document further notes that, “depending on the scale of uptake, an AI-driven growth boost could raise the level of global energy demand by between 1-4% in 2035 compared with trends without this AI boost.”
Essentially, even if AI makes the world much richer and more productive, we won’t necessarily see an equal spike in the amount of fuel and electricity used. This is because the economic gains are mostly expected in sectors like finance, technology, and professional services, which do not require massive amounts of heavy industrial energy to grow. Additionally, while the technology creates new energy needs for data centers, it can also improve efficiency in fields like transport and manufacturing, helping to offset some of the total increase.
The report “Key Questions on Energy and AI” was published in April 2026 by the International Energy Agency in Paris, France. Part of the World Energy Outlook Special Report series, the analysis was prepared by a team led by Thomas Spencer and Siddharth Singh under the direction of Laura Cozzi. The publication provides a comprehensive assessment of the rapidly evolving intersection between artificial intelligence, data center power demands, and global energy markets.
