Climate change is expected to significantly reduce electricity generation from hydropower plants across Central Asia due to shrinking glaciers and more frequent droughts. According to the authors of the newly released report, the region’s heavy reliance on river flows makes its energy security particularly vulnerable to shifting weather patterns and declining reservoir levels.
“Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are leading to more frequent droughts and reduced river flows, which may directly affect hydropower generation.” The report adds that “a decrease in available water volumes and, accordingly, electricity generation is expected in almost all scenarios, especially in conditions of severe warming and drought.”
In simple terms, the region depends on water from melting ice and snow to spin the turbines that create electricity. As the climate warms, the glaciers that act as natural water storage are disappearing, and rainfall is becoming less predictable. This means there is less water available to fill the large reservoirs used to generate power, potentially leading to electricity shortages, especially during the winter when demand for heating is high but river flows are at their lowest.
The report “Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition” was published by the Eurasian Development Bank in Almaty in 2026. Authored by a team led by Evgeny Vinokurov, it explores the region’s energy challenges through the lens of the energy trilemma. The study proposes a pragmatic “middle path” to balance energy security, affordability, and sustainability amid a rapidly growing demand and aging infrastructure.
